Piotr Nejman
Circular Economy or Circular Security ?
I am writing these words on the 12th day of Russian aggression in Ukraine. The cruel and nonsense war that ruins the lives of many and serves (or is supposed to serve) a small group of Kremlin's sidekicks. For the short term, I believe. I hope this horror story will soon speed up to the "dictator in the bunker" scene.
Poster by Paweł Jońca https://paweljonca.com/en/shop/russian-bear/ - you can buy digital version to support Ukraine
Fortunately, the world united and a huge package of sanctions and exclusions came into force with some more just around the corner. It will shock and shake Russia. We already see the economy evaporating.
Moscow stock exchange - a Schroedinger's stock exchange - dead and alive at the same time as long as it is closed
Moscow stock exchange - a Schroedinger's stock exchange - dead and alive at the same time as long as it is closed
In 2019, a Polish analyst wrote an article titled "By 2022, Russia will cause a war in Europe or the Middle East", where he analyzes how the resource-based Russian economy is facing downturn, caused by factors like the global mobilization towards greener economies. Combined with the imperial ambitions of its leader and the changes in the geopolitical balance of power, this must lead to an inevitable catastrophe. It seems pretty predictable now, when you look back, but I must admit I was not the one who knew. Still, I am in good company with most European leaders.
Currently, about 40% of natural gas used in the EU comes from Russia and we will have to deal with it soon.The 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union's Reliance on Russian Natural Gas published recently by the International Energy Agency promises that cutting Russian gas import by half is possible within a year, still staying in line with current climate ambitions.
Currently, about 40% of natural gas used in the EU comes from Russia and we will have to deal with it soon.The 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union's Reliance on Russian Natural Gas published recently by the International Energy Agency promises that cutting Russian gas import by half is possible within a year, still staying in line with current climate ambitions.
Circular Economy - Circular Security ?
What surprised me recently is a realization that in our conversations about the circular economy, we rarely took into account the perspective of national or regional security. I have the impression that in recent days the perception of the circular economy has changed for many people. The climate and economic goals suddenly coincided at one point with most important political ones and are clearly moving in the same direction. Politicians, experts and ordinary people express regret that the energy and raw materials transformation has not been faster so far. Despite the fact it could.
So far, we have talked about closing the loop as a way to achieve climate goals while building resilience of businesses and regions to tackle challenges ahead. Now, we have gained an updated perspective that, I believe, has rarely been paid attention to before. It is a direct threat to regional security and foundations of economies.
By closing the cycle of materials, switching to renewable energy sources or using more effectively what we already have, we ensure in practice a greater independence from "resource empires". And that expands our contribution far beyond prosperity. Implementing a circular economy can in this way reinforce public security. Along with the change in our map of connotations, next to resilience we should include security. This semantic change has further ramifications, expanding the list of available arguments and involving new groups of stakeholders in the discussion.
So far, we have talked about closing the loop as a way to achieve climate goals while building resilience of businesses and regions to tackle challenges ahead. Now, we have gained an updated perspective that, I believe, has rarely been paid attention to before. It is a direct threat to regional security and foundations of economies.
By closing the cycle of materials, switching to renewable energy sources or using more effectively what we already have, we ensure in practice a greater independence from "resource empires". And that expands our contribution far beyond prosperity. Implementing a circular economy can in this way reinforce public security. Along with the change in our map of connotations, next to resilience we should include security. This semantic change has further ramifications, expanding the list of available arguments and involving new groups of stakeholders in the discussion.
- resilience -> security
- business -> countries
- innovativeness -> independence
Of course, now leaders are faced with the need to act in a flash and reduce dependence on Russian raw materials in months, not decades, so I expect that in many ways we may have to take a step back in the green transition. And the problem with makeshift repairs is that they are often the longest-lasting.
BTW Ceterum censeo Carthaginem delendam esse / esse delendam
BTW Ceterum censeo Carthaginem delendam esse / esse delendam
Piotr Nejman
